Limiting long-term illness projections (dwelling-led), 2020-2035

This local dataset shows the projected number of people with limiting long-term illness by age group, for the period 2020-2035, for East Sussex and its districts.

These projections are based on the dwelling-led population projections (previously known as policy-based projections) which are constrained to reflect the number of extra dwellings being planned for future years by local authorities in East Sussex. They are also based on the 2020 data on population estimates, births, deaths and migration released by ONS in 2021.

Differences between the previous set of projections (2019-based) and the latest set may be due to changes in planned housing provision, but also to the latest 2020-based demographic data.

The projected number of people with limiting long-term illness (LLTI) are calculated by multiplying age and sex specific rates of LLTI by the dwelling-led population projections.

The dwelling-led population projections are produced by East Sussex County Council by using the POPGROUP Model developed by the Local Government Association (LGA).

This model is based on a 'cohort component method', where the starting point is an existing estimate of the population, by single year of age and sex and in a particular area, which is projected forward, one year at a time, taking account of the impact of births, deaths and migration (internal and international migration). Assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration trends are derived from recent historical evidence.

The dwelling-led population projections are based on these assumptions and also constrained to reflect the population as at June 2019 and the number of extra dwellings being planned for the future. They therefore reflect the future changes in housing development.

These projections are based on the 2020 population estimates released by ONS in June and September 2021.  They include the latest trends for fertility, mortality and internal migration and reflect the most up to date housing provision figures available as at March 2022.

The LLTI rates applied on the population are taken from the 2001 Census, which recorded the number of people who are limited in their daily activities or work as a result of a long standing illness, health problem or disability.

More details can be found on East Sussex in Figures

Link to dataset:

Limiting long-term illness projections, March 2022

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Tags

Population figures Disability Long term conditions Local

Resource Date

March 2022