Disability projections (dwelling-led), 2020-2035

This dataset shows the projected number of people with disability by age group and disability type, for the period 2020 to 2035, for East Sussex and its districts. These projections are based on the dwelling-led population projections (previously known as policy-based projections) which are constrained to reflect the number of extra dwellings being planned for future years by local authorities in East Sussex. They are also based on the 2020 data on population estimates, births, deaths and migration released by ONS in 2021.

The overall population considered for these projections are aged over 10.

The projected number of people with disability are calculated by multiplying age and sex specific rates of disability by the dwelling-led population projections.

The dwelling-led population projections are produced by East Sussex County Council by using the POPGROUP Model developed by the Local Government Association (LGA).

This model is based on a 'cohort component method', where the starting point is an existing estimate of the population, by single year of age and gender and in a particular area, which is projected forward, one year at a time, taking account of the impact of births, deaths and migration (internal and international migration). Assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration trends are derived from recent historical evidence.

The dwelling-led population projections are based on these assumptions and also constrained to reflect the population as at June 2020 and the number of extra dwellings being planned for the future. They therefore reflect the future changes in housing development, whereas the trend-based population projections do not reflect the level of housing provision being planned locally.

These projections are based on the 2020 mid-year population estimates released by ONS in June and September 2021.

They include the latest trends for fertility, mortality and internal migration and reflect the most up-to-date housing provision figures available as at March 2022.

The disability rates applied on the population are taken from the Health Survey for England (2000/2001) which measures five disability types: locomotor (ability to move from place to place), personal care, hearing, sight and communication. The dataset also includes a measure of overall disability which covers the five disability types measured in the Health Survey of England. However, it does not include the communication disability due to the absence of a strong age pattern necessary for the model forecast.

The disability categories used in the dataset are:

  • Higher severity disability
  • Lower severity disability
  • Locomotor disability
  • Personal care disability
  • Hearing disability
  • Sight disability
  • Overall disability

Note: The categories of higher and lower severity are non-overlapping, so their sum equals the population with an overall disability. However, as a person can have more than one type of disability the sum of population across the individual disability types generally exceeds the population with an overall disability, especially at the older ages.

More details can be found onĀ East Sussex in Figures

Link to dataset:

Disability projections, March 2022


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Resource Date

March 2022